How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 742 | 0.625 | 64% |
| Base rate | 742 | 0.660 | 63% |
| Recent form | 742 | 0.649 | 63% |
The post-season is simulated in its current form: the play-in, best-of-five playoff series with home court to the higher seed, and a Final Four on a neutral floor. Series already under way continue from their current score.
Older seasons used other formats (a Top 16 group stage, different series lengths); their games all count for the ratings.
Live scores come from the EuroLeague's game centre; the in-game chance moves with the score and the clock only.
Rosters, injuries and domestic-league fatigue are not in the model.