Basketball · 2026–27 season
EuroLeague forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the EuroLeague title odds. Favourite right now: Olympiacos Piraeus, 30%.
Upcoming
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul at Paris Basketball | 109–111 | 48% |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz at Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 66–80 | 78% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv at Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade | 67–88 | 72% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Dubai Basketball at Virtus Bologna | 93–75 | 56% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade at Olympiacos Piraeus | 62–57 | 19% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Zalgiris Kaunas at Besiktas Istanbul | 83–67 | 50% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Valencia Basket at Armani Olimpia Milan | 84–73 | 63% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | FC Bayern Munich at LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne | 99–95 | 45% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | FC Barcelona at Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 93–90 | 35% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz at Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 65–84 | 86% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Paris Basketball at Anadolu Efes Istanbul | 95–90 | 34% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens at Real Madrid | 115–112 | 27% |
Chance of winning the EuroLeague title
| Team | Make play-in | Top six | Make playoffs | Final Four | Championship game | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos Piraeus | >99% | 95% | 99% | 78% | 48% | 30% |
| Real Madrid | 97% | 72% | 88% | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| Valencia Basket | 95% | 70% | 86% | 47% | 24% | 12% |
| Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens | 94% | 65% | 82% | 40% | 19% | 9% |
| Fenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul | 93% | 62% | 80% | 40% | 18% | 9% |
| Crvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade | 91% | 55% | 75% | 34% | 15% | 7% |
| FC Barcelona | 88% | 49% | 70% | 28% | 12% | 5% |
| Zalgiris Kaunas | 84% | 42% | 64% | 26% | 11% | 5% |
| Dubai Basketball | 87% | 45% | 67% | 27% | 12% | 5% |
| Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv | 76% | 31% | 52% | 18% | 7% | 3% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 EuroLeague title?
Olympiacos Piraeus, at 30%, ahead of Real Madrid (16%), Valencia Basket (12%) and Panathinaikos AKTOR Athens (9%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next EuroLeague games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv at Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv (12 November 2026): Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv 56%; Dubai Basketball at Olympiacos Piraeus (12 November 2026): Olympiacos Piraeus 79%; Zalgiris Kaunas at Armani Olimpia Milan (12 November 2026): Zalgiris Kaunas 61%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's EuroLeague predictions?
On 834 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 64% of the time. Its log loss was 0.628, against 0.666 for the base rate and 0.655 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.629 against the bookmakers' 0.646 over 281 games, 0.630 against Polymarket's 0.625 over 470 games and 0.624 against Kalshi's 0.625 over 404 games (lower is better).
How are the EuroLeague predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the EuroLeague title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.