How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 99 | 0.667 | 57% |
| Base rate | 99 | 0.694 | 56% |
| Recent form | 99 | 0.667 | 58% |
A team's home ground is the city it plays in most; it gets home advantage there and nowhere else. Matches abandoned without a result are left out.
A win by wickets is turned into runs (about eight a wicket) so the size of a win can move the rating.
The next season's fixtures appear once the ECB publishes them; until then the page shows how the last season finished and the ratings carry over.
Manchester Originals, Northern Superchargers and Oval Invincibles are rated as the clubs they became in 2026 (Manchester Super Giants, Sunrisers Leeds, MI London).
Tested on the held-back seasons of the five franchise leagues together (566 matches) and left out, because none beat the ratings alone: player ratings from every men's T20 match (runs above average with bat and ball, or an Elo for each player's XI, which follows a player between leagues), the share of a side's XI kept from last season (what auctions and retentions change), one set of model settings for every league, and counting balls to spare as well as wickets in a chase's winning margin.
The toss isn't in the model: its winner went on to win 52% of these leagues' matches, but it is decided half an hour before the start, after the forecast is made, and on the held-back seasons it helped by less than the noise.
Cricsheet adds matches a few days after they're played, so the latest result can lag.