PodiumOracle ICC Men's T20 World Cup

Cricket · Road to 2028 season

ICC Men's T20 World Cup forecasts

Win probabilities for every match from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the T20 World Cup odds. Favourite right now: England, 45%.

Upcoming

DateMatchFirst namedSecond named
15 Nov 2026Costa Rica vs Falkland Islands22%78%
15 Nov 2026Costa Rica vs Falkland Islands22%78%
16 Nov 2026Costa Rica vs Falkland Islands22%78%
16 Nov 2026Costa Rica vs Falkland Islands22%78%
18 Nov 2026Costa Rica vs Falkland Islands22%78%
21 Nov 2026England vs Australia77%23%
24 Nov 2026England vs Australia77%23%
27 Nov 2026England vs Australia77%23%
29 Nov 2026England vs Australia77%23%
2 Dec 2026England vs Australia77%23%

Recent results

All results

DateMatchScorePre-game chance of the winner
1 Nov 2026New Zealand vs IndiaNew Zealand won by 7 wickets37%
30 Oct 2026India vs New ZealandNew Zealand won by 87 runs25%
27 Oct 2026India vs New ZealandIndia won by 6 wickets72%
25 Oct 2026Lesotho vs GambiaGambia won by 3 runs54%
25 Oct 2026Mozambique vs ZambiaMozambique won by 3 wickets36%
25 Oct 2026Uganda vs NigeriaNigeria won by 1 runs25%
24 Oct 2026India vs New ZealandIndia won by 4 wickets68%
24 Oct 2026Uganda vs MozambiqueUganda won by 10 wickets92%
24 Oct 2026Zambia vs GambiaZambia won by 8 wickets73%
24 Oct 2026Nigeria vs LesothoNigeria won by 7 wickets89%
23 Oct 2026Nigeria vs MozambiqueNigeria won by 7 wickets77%
23 Oct 2026Zambia vs LesothoZambia won by 7 wickets74%

Chance of winning the T20 World Cup

Every nation

NationReach Super 8Semi-finalReach finalWin
England89%81%62%45%
South Africa78%48%27%12%
Pakistan75%49%25%11%
India70%45%23%10%
New Zealand68%40%18%8%
Australia56%29%12%4%
West Indies52%29%11%4%
Nepal48%20%7%2%
United States of America31%12%4%1%
Sri Lanka40%10%3%1%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the Road to 2028 T20 World Cup?

England, at 45%, ahead of South Africa (12%), Pakistan (11%) and India (10%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next ICC Men's T20 World Cup matches?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Costa Rica vs Falkland Islands (15 November 2026): Falkland Islands 78%; Costa Rica vs Falkland Islands (15 November 2026): Falkland Islands 78%; Costa Rica vs Falkland Islands (16 November 2026): Falkland Islands 78%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's ICC Men's T20 World Cup predictions?

On 2,119 games from held-back seasons (Road to 2024 to Road to 2028), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 67% of the time. Its log loss was 0.586, against 0.702 for the base rate and 0.648 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.535 against the bookmakers' 0.390 over 39 games (lower is better).

How are the ICC Men's T20 World Cup predictions made?

Every nation has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the T20 World Cup odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.