Football · 2026–27 season
La Liga forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Barcelona, 81%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | Espanyol at Málaga | 35% | 29% | 35% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Athletic Club at Rayo Vallecano | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Atlético Madrid at Alavés | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Getafe at Barcelona | 81% | 13% | 7% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Villarreal at Real Madrid | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Celta Vigo at Elche | 35% | 29% | 35% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Deportivo at Real Sociedad | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Osasuna at Real Betis | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Valencia at Racing Santander | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Sevilla at Levante | 43% | 29% | 29% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Levante at Deportivo | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Atlético Madrid at Espanyol | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Elche at Villarreal | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Barcelona at Real Betis | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Athletic Club at Valencia | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Racing Santander at Osasuna | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Real Sociedad at Valencia | 3–2 | 28% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Levante at Villarreal | 1–3 | 60% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Real Betis at Deportivo | 1–1 | 28% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Real Madrid at Atlético Madrid | 1–2 | 33% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Málaga at Getafe | 0–1 | 55% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Barcelona at Sevilla | 3–1 | 65% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Racing Santander at Celta Vigo | 0–5 | 58% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Alavés at Athletic Club | 0–0 | 27% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Rayo Vallecano at Osasuna | 1–1 | 29% |
Chance of winning the title
| Team | Win title | Top four | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 81% | >99% | 0% |
| Real Madrid | 14% | 96% | 0% |
| Atlético Madrid | 4% | 82% | <1% |
| Real Betis | 1% | 58% | <1% |
| Villarreal | <1% | 24% | 1% |
| Rayo Vallecano | <1% | 4% | 8% |
| Athletic Club | <1% | 9% | 4% |
| Sevilla | <1% | 7% | 4% |
| Real Sociedad | <1% | 6% | 4% |
| Alavés | <1% | 4% | 7% |