Football · 2026–27 season
La Liga forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Barcelona, 73%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov 2026 | Espanyol at Athletic Club | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Deportivo at Alavés | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Valencia at Rayo Vallecano | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Real Betis at Sevilla | 42% | 29% | 30% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Celta Vigo at Real Madrid | 9% | 16% | 75% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Villarreal at Barcelona | 11% | 18% | 71% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Real Sociedad at Racing Santander | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Málaga at Osasuna | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Atlético Madrid at Getafe | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| 23 Nov 2026 | Elche at Levante | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Racing Santander at Levante | 21% | 26% | 54% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Rayo Vallecano at Real Betis | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Athletic Club at Málaga | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Atlético Madrid at Elche | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Alavés at Real Madrid | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Osasuna at Valencia | 25% | 28% | 48% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Dec 2026 | Athletic Club at Rayo Vallecano | 0–0 | 29% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Barcelona at Atlético Madrid | 2–1 | 43% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Getafe at Villarreal | 0–2 | 60% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Levante at Celta Vigo | 0–0 | 27% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad | 0–1 | 47% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Real Betis at Elche | 2–0 | 43% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Real Madrid at Valencia | 3–0 | 60% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Athletic Club at Osasuna | 1–1 | 29% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Deportivo at Espanyol | 0–0 | 27% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Racing Santander at Málaga | 2–1 | 28% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Alavés at Sevilla | 0–0 | 28% |
Chance of winning the title
| Team | Win title | Top four | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 73% | >99% | 0% |
| Real Madrid | 24% | >99% | 0% |
| Atlético Madrid | 3% | 94% | 0% |
| Real Betis | <1% | 71% | 0% |
| Villarreal | <1% | 11% | <1% |
| Real Sociedad | 0% | 13% | <1% |
| Athletic Club | 0% | 5% | 1% |
| Sevilla | 0% | 3% | 3% |
| Rayo Vallecano | 0% | 1% | 11% |
| Celta Vigo | 0% | 1% | 10% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 La Liga title?
Barcelona, at 73%, ahead of Real Madrid (24%) and Atlético Madrid (3%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next La Liga games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Espanyol at Athletic Club (20 November 2026): Athletic Club 54%, a draw 26%; Deportivo at Alavés (21 November 2026): Alavés 49%, a draw 27%; Valencia at Rayo Vallecano (21 November 2026): Rayo Vallecano 46%, a draw 28%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's La Liga predictions?
On 880 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 54% of the time. Its log loss was 0.969, against 1.062 for the base rate and 1.004 for recent form, and 0.949 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.949 against the bookmakers' 0.923 over 241 games, 0.950 against Polymarket's 0.932 over 425 games and 0.964 against Kalshi's 0.947 over 491 games (lower is better).
How are the La Liga predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the La Liga title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.