How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 417 | 1.005 | 53% |
| Base rate | 417 | 1.060 | 47% |
| Recent form | 417 | 1.029 | 49% |
| Betting market | 415 | 0.988 | 52% |
Liga MX plays two tournaments a year, the Apertura (July to December) and the Clausura (January to May), each with its own table and Liguilla; each is a season here, and ratings carry from one to the next.
Home advantage is large in Mexico — Toluca and the Mexico City clubs play at altitude — and the model's single home edge is fit on the tuning tournaments.
The market comparison uses the bookmakers' closing odds with their margin taken out.
Relegation is suspended, so there are no relegation odds.
Liguilla ties are two legs; the simulation plays each as one game at the better seed's ground.