Football · Apertura 2026 season
Liga MX forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Liga MX title odds. Favourite right now: Cruz Azul, 29%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2026 | Monterrey at Querétaro | 37% | 25% | 37% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2026 | Guadalajara at León | 1–1 | 25% |
| 9 Nov 2026 | Puebla at Querétaro | 2–0 | 21% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | América at Pumas UNAM | 2–2 | 25% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Monterrey at Toluca | 0–4 | 58% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Cruz Azul at Tigres UANL | 3–2 | 44% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Pachuca at Atlas | 4–1 | 38% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Santos at Atlante | 2–0 | 32% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Tijuana at Necaxa | 0–1 | 30% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | FC Juárez at Atlético de San Luis | 1–0 | 23% |
Chance of winning the Liga MX title
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the Apertura 2026 Liga MX title?
Cruz Azul, at 29%, ahead of América (21%), Guadalajara (19%) and Toluca (18%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next Liga MX games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Monterrey at Querétaro (14 November 2026): Querétaro 37%, a draw 25%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Liga MX predictions?
On 480 games from held-back seasons (Apertura 2025 to Apertura 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 51% of the time. Its log loss was 1.019, against 1.069 for the base rate and 1.042 for recent form, and 0.999 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 1.058 against the bookmakers' 1.033 over 283 games, 1.030 against Polymarket's 1.007 over 411 games and 1.048 against Kalshi's 1.021 over 322 games (lower is better).
How are the Liga MX predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Liga MX title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.