Football · Apertura 2026 season
Liga MX forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Liga MX title odds. Favourite right now: Toluca, 23%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | Toluca at Cruz Azul | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Querétaro at Guadalajara | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Pachuca at Santos | 24% | 23% | 52% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Puebla at Tigres UANL | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Atlético de San Luis at Pumas UNAM | 58% | 21% | 20% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | FC Juarez at León | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | América at Necaxa | 26% | 24% | 50% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | Atlas at Tijuana | 3–2 | 22% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Monterrey at Atlante | 2–4 | 33% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | León at Querétaro | 1–1 | 24% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Santos at Toluca | 3–2 | 9% |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Tijuana at Pachuca | 2–2 | 24% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Guadalajara at América | 2–2 | 25% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Cruz Azul at Monterrey | 0–1 | 32% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Necaxa at Atlético de San Luis | 1–3 | 45% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Pumas UNAM at Atlas | 1–1 | 25% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Tigres UANL at FC Juarez | 0–2 | 25% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Atlante at Puebla | 1–1 | 25% |
Chance of winning the Liga MX title
| Team | Top four | Make Liguilla | Semi-final | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 83% | 98% | 65% | 40% | 23% |
| Guadalajara | 83% | 98% | 62% | 36% | 19% |
| América | 76% | 96% | 61% | 35% | 19% |
| Cruz Azul | 39% | 81% | 46% | 25% | 14% |
| Tijuana | 21% | 65% | 28% | 11% | 5% |
| Pumas UNAM | 15% | 55% | 25% | 11% | 5% |
| Querétaro | 33% | 75% | 30% | 12% | 4% |
| Pachuca | 13% | 48% | 21% | 9% | 4% |
| Atlas | 19% | 64% | 22% | 8% | 3% |
| Monterrey | 7% | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% |