Football · Clausura 2026 season
Liga Profesional forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Boca Juniors, 17%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov 2026 | Belgrano (Córdoba) at Vélez Sarsfield | 39% | 0% | 61% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Barracas Central at Defensa y Justicia | 43% | 0% | 57% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Independiente at Argentinos Juniors | 38% | 0% | 62% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Gimnasia (Mendoza) at Rosario Central | 31% | 0% | 69% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Lanús at River Plate | 37% | 0% | 63% |
| 23 Nov 2026 | Huracán at Instituto (Córdoba) | 42% | 0% | 58% |
| 23 Nov 2026 | Newell's Old Boys at Gimnasia La Plata | 37% | 0% | 63% |
| 26 Nov 2026 | Independiente Rivadavia at Boca Juniors | 32% | 0% | 68% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Lanús at Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) | 1–1 | 30% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Newell's Old Boys at Instituto (Córdoba) | 2–2 | 28% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at Rosario Central | 0–2 | 66% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Defensa y Justicia at Boca Juniors | 0–1 | 57% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Huracán at Argentinos Juniors | 2–0 | 21% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Estudiantes de La Plata at Talleres (Córdoba) | 1–1 | 30% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Independiente Rivadavia at Gimnasia (Mendoza) | 1–1 | 30% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Atlético Tucumán at Banfield | 2–2 | 30% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Sarmiento (Junín) at Tigre | 0–1 | 48% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Vélez Sarsfield at Unión (Santa Fe) | 0–2 | 34% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Platense at San Lorenzo | 2–0 | 24% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Deportivo Riestra at Independiente | 1–2 | 51% |
Chance of winning the title
| Team | Reach knockouts | Quarter-final | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 100% | 48% | 28% | 17% |
| Rosario Central | 100% | 45% | 24% | 13% |
| Argentinos Juniors | 100% | 37% | 20% | 10% |
| River Plate | 100% | 35% | 18% | 10% |
| Vélez Sarsfield | 100% | 29% | 15% | 7% |
| Instituto (Córdoba) | 100% | 31% | 14% | 7% |
| Gimnasia La Plata | 100% | 25% | 12% | 6% |
| Defensa y Justicia | 100% | 24% | 11% | 5% |
| Lanús | 100% | 18% | 9% | 4% |
| Belgrano (Córdoba) | 100% | 18% | 8% | 4% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the Clausura 2026 Liga Profesional title?
Boca Juniors, at 17%, ahead of Rosario Central (13%), Argentinos Juniors (10%) and River Plate (10%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next Liga Profesional games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Belgrano (Córdoba) at Vélez Sarsfield (20 November 2026): Vélez Sarsfield 61%; Barracas Central at Defensa y Justicia (21 November 2026): Defensa y Justicia 57%; Independiente at Argentinos Juniors (21 November 2026): Argentinos Juniors 62%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Liga Profesional predictions?
On 750 games from held-back seasons (Clausura 2025 to Clausura 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 43% of the time. Its log loss was 1.066, against 1.087 for the base rate and 1.086 for recent form, and 1.053 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 1.046 against the bookmakers' 1.026 over 430 games, 1.060 against Polymarket's 1.041 over 544 games and 1.052 against Kalshi's 1.021 over 456 games (lower is better).
How are the Liga Profesional predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Liga Profesional title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.