How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 660 | 1.071 | 42% |
| Base rate | 660 | 1.085 | 42% |
| Recent form | 660 | 1.091 | 42% |
| Betting market | 659 | 1.061 | 42% |
Argentina plays two tournaments a year, the Apertura (January to May) and the Clausura (July to December), each a season here; thirty clubs in two zones, the top eight of each into knockout rounds.
Draws are common in Argentina, and the model's draw band is fit on the tuning tournaments.
The market comparison uses the bookmakers' closing odds with their margin taken out.
Relegation is decided on the year's combined table and the three-year points average; it is not simulated.
The knockout bracket beyond the round of 16 follows the league's usual pattern; a different draw would move the odds a little.