How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
This is strokes gained against the field from round scores, not shot-level Strokes Gained from ShotLink: it knows how many strokes a player took, not where they came from.
Events are 72 holes with no cut from 2026 (54 before), with a fixed field of 57; the team competition isn't simulated.
Rounds on the other men's tours (PGA Tour, DP World Tour, LIV) count toward each player's skill, since the best players split their time; only this tour's events are forecast and scored.
Withdrawals during an event count as missing the rounds they didn't play.
Course fit is not in the model. LIV's short history means the ratings also lean on the prior, and players' results elsewhere (the majors, the DP World Tour) aren't included.