How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 7349 | 0.681 | 56% |
| Base rate | 7349 | 0.691 | 53% |
| Recent form | 7349 | 0.690 | 53% |
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The postseason odds play the real format: three division winners and three wild cards per league, byes for the top two, and best-of-three, five and seven series.
The starter figure is runs allowed with him on the mound, which includes his defence and bullpen; it is not a pitching-only measure like FIP.
Lineups, rest and bullpen use are not in the model.
Ballparks with a roof get no weather, because whether it was closed isn't recorded.