Baseball · 2026 season over
MLB forecasts
The 2026 season is over. Until the 2027 schedule is out, here is an early look: last season's schedule played 10,000 times a year on, with every rating carried over the way the model carries it between seasons. Early favourite: Milwaukee Brewers, 17%. The full early look.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays | 4–1 | 55% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays | 3–4 | 45% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays | 10–1 | 54% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers | 4–5 | 61% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers | 2–3 | 61% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays | 3–7 | 57% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians | 7–3 | 50% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians | 3–1 | 51% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers | 6–4 | 49% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers | 6–2 | 49% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians | 2–3 | 50% |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays | 1–3 | 56% |
Chance of winning the World Series
| Team | Make postseason | Win division | Bye | LCS | Pennant | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 87% | 62% | 52% | 43% | 26% | 17% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 74% | 47% | 34% | 30% | 16% | 9% |
| New York Yankees | 67% | 31% | 28% | 26% | 15% | 8% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 65% | 27% | 24% | 24% | 13% | 6% |
| San Diego Padres | 62% | 32% | 23% | 22% | 11% | 6% |
| Chicago Cubs | 56% | 20% | 15% | 18% | 9% | 5% |
| Boston Red Sox | 55% | 20% | 17% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 50% | 29% | 20% | 18% | 9% | 4% |
| Atlanta Braves | 50% | 29% | 16% | 16% | 8% | 4% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 49% | 29% | 15% | 16% | 7% | 4% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2027 World Series?
Milwaukee Brewers, at 17%, ahead of Los Angeles Dodgers (9%), New York Yankees (8%) and Tampa Bay Rays (6%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the next season, on last season's schedule with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's MLB predictions?
On 7,418 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 56% of the time. Its log loss was 0.680, against 0.691 for the base rate and 0.690 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.683 against the bookmakers' 0.680 over 2,469 games, 0.680 against Polymarket's 0.677 over 4,234 games and 0.680 against Kalshi's 0.678 over 4,039 games (lower is better).
How are the MLB predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.