How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 1450 | 1.049 | 47% |
| Base rate | 1450 | 1.071 | 46% |
| Recent form | 1450 | 1.062 | 46% |
| Betting market | 1450 | 1.024 | 49% |
Home advantage is large in MLS: long journeys, time zones, altitude and artificial pitches all fall on the visiting side.
Summer heat counts as rough weather here, as well as wind and rain.
The Supporters' Shield is the 'Finish first' column.
Designated-player signings, international call-ups and midweek rotation are not in the model.