Football · 2026 season
MLS forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the MLS Cup odds. Favourite right now: Nashville SC, 100%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov 2026 | FC Cincinnati at Orlando City SC | 36% | 0% | 64% |
| 20 Nov 2026 | Real Salt Lake at Seattle Sounders FC | 36% | 0% | 64% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Philadelphia Union at New England Revolution | 45% | 0% | 55% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Portland Timbers at FC Dallas | 31% | 0% | 69% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Columbus Crew at Inter Miami CF | 31% | 0% | 69% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | TBD Away at Nashville SC | 20% | 0% | 80% |
| 22 Nov 2026 | Charlotte FC at Chicago Fire FC | 38% | 0% | 62% |
| 23 Nov 2026 | TBD Away at Vancouver Whitecaps | 24% | 0% | 76% |
| 24 Nov 2026 | LAFC at St. Louis CITY SC | 34% | 0% | 66% |
| 25 Nov 2026 | Houston Dynamo FC at San Jose Earthquakes | 37% | 0% | 63% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Inter Miami CF at Columbus Crew | 43% | 0% | 57% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps at TBD Home | 51% | 0% | 49% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Chicago Fire FC at Charlotte FC | 35% | 0% | 65% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes at Houston Dynamo FC | 36% | 0% | 64% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | New England Revolution at Philadelphia Union | 30% | 0% | 70% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Nashville SC at TBD Home | 57% | 0% | 43% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Portland Timbers at Austin FC | 2–0 | 32% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Colorado Rapids at FC Dallas | 1–3 | 61% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | St. Louis CITY SC at Houston Dynamo FC | 1–0 | 27% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes at Minnesota United FC | 1–3 | 52% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | LA Galaxy at Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | 51% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Sporting Kansas City at San Diego FC | 1–0 | 15% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | LAFC at Seattle Sounders FC | 1–2 | 47% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps at CF Montréal | 2–0 | 54% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Columbus Crew at Chicago Fire FC | 4–3 | 23% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | New York City FC at D.C. United | 1–0 | 37% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Nashville SC at FC Cincinnati | 2–0 | 41% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Charlotte FC at Inter Miami CF | 3–3 | 22% |
Chance of winning the MLS Cup
| Team | Make playoffs | Conference final | MLS Cup final | Win MLS Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | – | – | – | – |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | – | – | – | – |
| Inter Miami CF | – | – | – | – |
| FC Dallas | – | – | – | – |
| New England Revolution | – | – | – | – |
| Chicago Fire FC | – | – | – | – |
| Charlotte FC | – | – | – | – |
| St. Louis CITY SC | – | – | – | – |
| San Jose Earthquakes | – | – | – | – |
| Houston Dynamo FC | – | – | – | – |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Nashville SC, at 100%. That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next MLS games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: FC Cincinnati at Orlando City SC (20 November 2026): Orlando City SC 64%; Real Salt Lake at Seattle Sounders FC (20 November 2026): Seattle Sounders FC 64%; Philadelphia Union at New England Revolution (21 November 2026): New England Revolution 55%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's MLS predictions?
On 1,572 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 47% of the time. Its log loss was 1.046, against 1.070 for the base rate and 1.061 for recent form, and 1.021 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 1.048 against the bookmakers' 1.018 over 510 games, 1.037 against Polymarket's 1.009 over 637 games and 1.045 against Kalshi's 1.016 over 804 games (lower is better).
How are the MLS predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the MLS Cup odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.