Football · 2026 season
MLS forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the MLS Cup odds. Favourite right now: Nashville SC, 24%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | New York City FC at Atlanta United FC | 41% | 25% | 33% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | FC Cincinnati at CF Montréal | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Chicago Fire FC at Charlotte FC | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | St. Louis CITY SC at Red Bull New York | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Orlando City SC at Philadelphia Union | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | LAFC at FC Dallas | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Sporting Kansas City at Houston Dynamo FC | 71% | 16% | 12% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Minnesota United FC at Seattle Sounders FC | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Toronto FC at Nashville SC | 72% | 16% | 12% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | San Diego FC at Austin FC | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | New England Revolution at Real Salt Lake | 39% | 25% | 35% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Colorado Rapids at LA Galaxy | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | D.C. United at Vancouver Whitecaps | 74% | 15% | 11% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Portland Timbers at San Jose Earthquakes | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Inter Miami CF at Columbus Crew | 35% | 25% | 39% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Sporting Kansas City at Seattle Sounders FC | 66% | 18% | 15% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | Real Salt Lake at Seattle Sounders FC | 0–2 | 55% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | San Diego FC at Inter Miami CF | 2–2 | 19% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Atlanta United FC at Portland Timbers | 1–0 | 18% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps at Real Salt Lake | 3–0 | 41% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Seattle Sounders FC at Colorado Rapids | 3–3 | 23% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Chicago Fire FC at Nashville SC | 0–3 | 62% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | FC Cincinnati at Houston Dynamo FC | 2–2 | 22% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | LA Galaxy at Minnesota United FC | 3–2 | 22% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Austin FC at FC Dallas | 0–0 | 20% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Philadelphia Union at Sporting Kansas City | 4–3 | 47% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Toronto FC at St. Louis CITY SC | 1–3 | 63% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Orlando City SC at New England Revolution | 2–4 | 53% |
Chance of winning the MLS Cup
| Team | Make playoffs | Conference final | MLS Cup final | Win MLS Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 100% | 52% | 36% | 24% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 100% | 53% | 36% | 20% |
| Inter Miami CF | 100% | 41% | 21% | 11% |
| St. Louis CITY SC | >99% | 30% | 15% | 7% |
| FC Dallas | >99% | 31% | 15% | 7% |
| New England Revolution | 100% | 25% | 11% | 5% |
| Houston Dynamo FC | >99% | 27% | 12% | 5% |
| Charlotte FC | >99% | 24% | 10% | 4% |
| LAFC | 99% | 20% | 9% | 3% |
| Philadelphia Union | 96% | 18% | 7% | 3% |