How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
A rider's rating is the rider plus the team that season. Every Moto2 bike has the same Triumph engine, so the team part is small and most of the gap is the rider, which is why the class is the main step to MotoGP.
The title simulation plays every remaining Grand Prix with today's strengths and the real points (25-20-16-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1), on top of the points already scored.
Crashes and retirements count as finishing behind every classified rider, whatever the cause.
Riders move up to MotoGP and new ones arrive from Moto3 and the junior series each year; a newcomer starts from the class average.
Before the entry list is out, the next race's field is the last race's.
Questions and answers
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Moto2 predictions?
On 61 races from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, its favourite won 18% of the time in fields of about 28, and it gave the eventual winner 11% on average. Its log loss was 2.634, against 3.345 for treating every rider as equal and 2.816 for recent form.