Round 21 · 22 Nov 2026 · Autódromo Internacional do Algarve
Grand Prix of Portugal
Each rider's chance from 20,000 simulations of the Grand Prix, using ratings fit only on earlier results. The entry list isn't out yet, so the field is the last Grand Prix's. In the championship, Manuel Gonzalez is 79% to win the title.
The field
| Rider | Win | Podium |
|---|---|---|
| Manuel Gonzalez | 21% | 57% |
| Izan Guevara | 18% | 50% |
| Ivan Ortola | 16% | 46% |
| Daniel Holgado | 13% | 40% |
| David Alonso | 9% | 28% |
| Alonso Lopez | 5% | 17% |
| Celestino Vietti | 4% | 12% |
| Senna Agius | 4% | 12% |
| Filip Salac | 2% | 8% |
| Daniel Muñoz | 2% | 6% |
| Tony Arbolino | 2% | 6% |
| Joe Roberts | 1% | 4% |
| Collin Veijer | 1% | 4% |
| Barry Baltus | 1% | 4% |
| Alex Escrig | 1% | 2% |
| Deniz Öncü | 1% | 2% |
| Jose Antonio Rueda | <1% | 1% |
| Adrian Huertas | <1% | 1% |
| Angel Piqueras | <1% | 1% |
| Matteo Ferrari | <1% | <1% |
| Zonta Vd Goorbergh | <1% | <1% |
| Taiyo Furusato | <1% | <1% |
| Luca Lunetta | <1% | <1% |
| Xabi Zurutuza | <1% | <1% |
| Alberto Ferrandez | <1% | <1% |
| Ayumu Sasaki | 0% | <1% |
| Mario Aji | 0% | <1% |
Chance of winning the World Championship
| Rider | Points | Projected | Title chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Gonzalez | 287 | 308 | 79% |
| Izan Guevara | 273 | 294 | 21% |
| Ivan Ortola | 220 | 240 | 0% |
| Daniel Holgado | 215 | 235 | 0% |
| David Alonso | 204 | 222 | 0% |
| Senna Agius | 175 | 189 | 0% |
| Filip Salac | 162 | 175 | 0% |
| Celestino Vietti | 146 | 160 | 0% |
| Alonso Lopez | 135 | 150 | 0% |
| Daniel Muñoz | 97 | 109 | 0% |
Calendar
- Grand Prix of Thailand 1 Mar 2026, won by Manuel Gonzalez
- Grand Prix of Brazil 22 Mar 2026, won by Daniel Holgado
- Grand Prix of the United States 29 Mar 2026, won by Senna Agius
- Grand Prix of Spain 26 Apr 2026, won by Senna Agius
- Grand Prix de France 10 May 2026, won by Izan Guevara
- Grand Prix of Catalonia 17 May 2026, won by Manuel Gonzalez
- Grand Prix of Italy 31 May 2026, won by Manuel Gonzalez
- Grand Prix of Hungary 7 Jun 2026, won by Manuel Gonzalez
- Grand Prix of Czechia 21 Jun 2026, won by Ivan Ortola
- Grand Prix of the Netherlands 28 Jun 2026, won by David Alonso
- Grand Prix of Germany 12 Jul 2026, won by Ivan Ortola
- Grand Prix of Great Britain 9 Aug 2026, won by Filip Salac
- Grand Prix of Aragon 30 Aug 2026, won by Alonso Lopez
- Grand Prix of San Marino 13 Sep 2026, won by Manuel Gonzalez
- Grand Prix of Austria 20 Sep 2026, won by Izan Guevara
- Grand Prix of Japan 4 Oct 2026, won by Izan Guevara
- Grand Prix of Indonesia 11 Oct 2026, won by Izan Guevara
- Grand Prix of Malaysia 1 Nov 2026, won by David Alonso
- Grand Prix of Qatar 8 Nov 2026, won by Daniel Holgado
- Grand Prix of Portugal 22 Nov 2026
- Grand Prix of Valencia 29 Nov 2026
Questions and answers
Who will win the Grand Prix of Portugal?
Manuel Gonzalez is the favourite at 21%, ahead of Izan Guevara (18%), Ivan Ortola (16%) and Daniel Holgado (13%), from 20,000 simulations of the Grand Prix with PodiumOracle's ratings, updated 12 November 2026. The entry list isn't out yet, so the field is the last Grand Prix's.
Who is favoured to win the 2026 World Championship?
Manuel Gonzalez, at 79%, ahead of Izan Guevara (21%) and Ivan Ortola (0%), from 10,000 simulations of the remaining races with the real points system, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Moto2 predictions?
On 61 races from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, its favourite won 18% of the time in fields of about 28, and it gave the eventual winner 11% on average. Its log loss was 2.634, against 3.345 for treating every rider as equal and 2.816 for recent form.