PodiumOracle Moto2

Round 16 · 4 Oct 2026 · Mobility Resort Motegi

Grand Prix of Japan

Each rider's chance from 20,000 simulations of the Grand Prix, using ratings fit only on earlier results. The entry list isn't out yet, so the field is the last Grand Prix's. In the championship, Manuel Gonzalez is 78% to win the title.

The field

RiderWinPodium
Manuel Gonzalez23%59%
Izan Guevara18%51%
Daniel Holgado10%31%
Ivan Ortola10%30%
Alonso Lopez9%27%
David Alonso7%24%
Senna Agius4%14%
Filip Salac4%12%
Celestino Vietti3%12%
Barry Baltus2%7%
Joe Roberts2%5%
Tony Arbolino2%6%
Daniel Muñoz1%4%
Aron Canet1%3%
Deniz öncü1%3%
Marcos Ramirez1%3%
Alex Escrig1%2%
Sergio Garcia1%2%
Adrian Huertas<1%1%
Jose Antonio Rueda<1%1%
Taiyo Furusato<1%1%
Ayumu Sasaki<1%<1%
Zonta Vd Goorbergh<1%<1%
Luca Lunetta<1%<1%
Xabi Zurutuza<1%<1%
Mario Aji<1%<1%

Chance of winning the World Championship

Every rider

RiderPointsProjectedTitle chance
Manuel Gonzalez24632478%
Izan Guevara21028520%
Ivan Ortola1692331%
David Alonso155215<1%
Daniel Holgado146210<1%
Senna Agius149201<1%
Celestino Vietti123172<1%
Alonso Lopez111173<1%
Filip Salac1281780%
Daniel Muñoz681020%

Calendar