14 Nov 2026 · Allianz Stadium
Japan at England
We have England at 96.8%, a draw at <1% and Japan at 2.8%.
Ratings going in: England 1898, Japan 1378, plus 85 for playing at home.
Weather forecast: 9°C, wind 10 km/h (gusts 20).
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | England | Draw | Japan |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 96.8% | <1% | 2.8% |
| Bookmakers (1 book) | 93.2% | 1.8% | 4.9% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Japan LLLLL, England LLWWW.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Japan at England?
PodiumOracle's model makes England the favourite at 97%, a draw under 1%, with Japan at 3%. The markets give England 93% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 97% favourite still loses 3% of the time.
When and where is Japan at England?
14 November 2026, at Allianz Stadium. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.