12 Nov 2026 · Moda Center
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
We have Portland Trail Blazers at 52.3% and Oklahoma City Thunder at 47.7%.
Ratings going in: Trail Blazers 1527, Thunder 1662, plus 55 for playing at home.
Who is playing: OKC -5.3 game score against its usual (without Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace); POR +8.2 game score against its usual (without Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe, Vit Krejci, Chris Youngblood). Net 96 rating points to POR.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Trail Blazers | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| Polymarket | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Kalshi | 56.0% | 44.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Oklahoma City Thunder WWWWL, Portland Trail Blazers WWLLW.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers | 103–123 | 48% |
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jan 2027 | Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder | 37% | 63% |
| 10 Feb 2027 | Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder | 37% | 63% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers?
PodiumOracle's model makes Portland Trail Blazers the favourite at 52%, with Oklahoma City Thunder at 48%. The markets give Portland Trail Blazers 47% on Polymarket, 50% on Kalshi and 57% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 52% favourite still loses 48% of the time.
When and where is Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers?
12 November 2026, at Moda Center. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.