How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 2643 | 0.599 | 68% |
| Base rate | 2643 | 0.689 | 55% |
| Recent form | 2643 | 0.635 | 64% |
The playoff odds play the real format: seeds 7 to 10 go through the play-in, then a fixed bracket of best-of-seven series with home court to the better record. A series already under way is continued from its current score.
Offensive and defensive ratings, pace and the four factors are in the Teams explorer, from box scores. They sit beside the rating; they do not move the forecast.
Rest, back-to-backs and travel are not in the model.
Who is playing is judged from box scores and the injury report, not from lineups announced before tip-off, so a late scratch can be missed.
Before a season starts, the player and team stats are last season's.