How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 189 | 0.634 | 61% |
| Base rate | 189 | 0.693 | 54% |
| Recent form | 189 | 0.667 | 57% |
The finals are simulated with the current format: third plays fourth and fifth plays sixth, the 3-4 winner takes the third seed and the 3-4 loser meets the 5-6 winner for the fourth; then best-of-three semi-finals (1 v 4, 2 v 3) and a best-of-five grand final series.
ESPN carries the NBL from the 2022–23 season, so the model has only a few seasons to learn from; its parameters are fit on two and scored on one.
Imports and injuries swing NBL teams more than most leagues; the rating only sees results.
The NBL Cup and games against touring NBA sides are left out.