Basketball · 2026–27 season
NBL forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the NBL championship odds. Favourite right now: Sydney Kings, 36%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | Melbourne United at Adelaide 36ers | 47% | 53% |
| 12 Nov 2026 | Tasmania JackJumpers at Perth Wildcats | 49% | 51% |
| 13 Nov 2026 | Brisbane Bullets at New Zealand Breakers | 39% | 61% |
| 13 Nov 2026 | Sydney Kings at Cairns Taipans | 55% | 45% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | South East Melbourne Phoenix at Melbourne United | 33% | 67% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Illawarra Hawks at Perth Wildcats | 40% | 60% |
| 15 Nov 2026 | New Zealand Breakers at Sydney Kings | 29% | 71% |
| 15 Nov 2026 | Tasmania JackJumpers at Brisbane Bullets | 51% | 49% |
| 18 Nov 2026 | South East Melbourne Phoenix at New Zealand Breakers | 42% | 58% |
| 19 Nov 2026 | Adelaide 36ers at Illawarra Hawks | 48% | 52% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | Illawarra Hawks at South East Melbourne Phoenix | 120–110 | 35% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Cairns Taipans at Perth Wildcats | 100–92 | 39% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | South East Melbourne Phoenix at Sydney Kings | 99–110 | 67% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Brisbane Bullets at Melbourne United | 92–120 | 67% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Illawarra Hawks at Adelaide 36ers | 78–106 | 64% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | New Zealand Breakers at Tasmania JackJumpers | 77–79 | 65% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Illawarra Hawks at Cairns Taipans | 107–95 | 36% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Perth Wildcats at Brisbane Bullets | 104–109 | 55% |
Chance of winning the NBL championship
| Team | Make finals | Top two | Semi-final | Grand final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Kings | 99% | 77% | 93% | 60% | 36% |
| Melbourne United | 94% | 43% | 77% | 42% | 22% |
| Tasmania JackJumpers | 95% | 49% | 80% | 41% | 19% |
| Adelaide 36ers | 73% | 11% | 44% | 19% | 8% |
| Cairns Taipans | 65% | 8% | 33% | 12% | 5% |
| Perth Wildcats | 41% | 3% | 18% | 7% | 3% |
| Brisbane Bullets | 46% | 4% | 20% | 7% | 3% |
| New Zealand Breakers | 36% | 2% | 15% | 5% | 2% |
| South East Melbourne Phoenix | 29% | 1% | 12% | 4% | 2% |
| Illawarra Hawks | 23% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 NBL championship?
Sydney Kings, at 36%, ahead of Melbourne United (22%), Tasmania JackJumpers (19%) and Adelaide 36ers (8%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next NBL games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Melbourne United at Adelaide 36ers (12 November 2026): Adelaide 36ers 53%; Tasmania JackJumpers at Perth Wildcats (12 November 2026): Perth Wildcats 51%; Brisbane Bullets at New Zealand Breakers (13 November 2026): New Zealand Breakers 61%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's NBL predictions?
On 239 games from held-back seasons (2025–26 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 59% of the time. Its log loss was 0.649, against 0.694 for the base rate and 0.674 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.634 against the bookmakers' 0.639 over 113 games, 0.632 against Polymarket's 0.643 over 121 games and 0.640 against Kalshi's 0.646 over 165 games (lower is better).
How are the NBL predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the NBL championship odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.