How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 2314 | 0.844 | 61% |
| Base rate | 2314 | 0.908 | 50% |
| Recent form | 2314 | 0.878 | 58% |
A regular-season game can end tied after five minutes of overtime (a shootout only settles conference points), so the model forecasts a win, a tie and a loss, as in football.
The title odds use an approximate tournament: each conference's best team by conference record gets in, standing in for its tournament winner, the rest of the sixteen are the best left by simulated wins and rating, seeded in order into a fixed bracket on neutral ice. The PairWise ranking the committee uses and regional placement are not modelled.
Roster turnover between seasons is only a pull toward average; transfers, recruits and players leaving for the pros are not in the rating.
Goaltending is not in the rating.
Live scores come from ESPN's scoreboard, matched to College Hockey News's games by date and teams; a game ESPN doesn't list has no live score.