Atlantic Coast Conference
North Carolina Tar Heels
Rated 2207 (No. 16 of 363), 1–2 this season, <1% to win the national championship.
Season outlook
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from today's ratings.
- 77%
- Make tournament
- 33%
- Sweet 16
- 5%
- Final Four
- 1%
- Title game
- <1%
- Win title
- 23.5
- Projected wins
Rating
North Carolina Tar Heels is rated 2207, No. 16 of 363. The gap between two ratings is what the model turns into a win chance: about 100 points makes a 64% favourite on a neutral ground.
Next
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2026 | North Carolina Tar Heels at Pennsylvania Quakers | 87% | 13% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | North Carolina Central Eagles at North Carolina Tar Heels | 40–109 | >99% |
Questions and answers
What is North Carolina Tar Heels' chance of winning the 2026–27 national championship?
Under 1%, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. North Carolina Tar Heels are No. 16 of 363 in PodiumOracle's power ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
Who do North Carolina Tar Heels play next, and what are their chances?
North Carolina Tar Heels at Pennsylvania Quakers on 14 November 2026 at The Palestra. PodiumOracle's model gives North Carolina Tar Heels 87%.