Week 10 · 15 Nov 2026 · FC Bayern Munich Stadium
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions
We have Detroit Lions at 45.8% and New England Patriots at 54.2%.
Ratings going in: Lions 1581, Patriots 1555 on a neutral ground.
Starting quarterbacks: NE (Drake Maye) +0.5 EPA per game against its usual; DET (Jared Goff) -3.3 EPA per game against its usual (doubts over Jared Goff, questionable). Net 56 rating points to NE.
The betting market (closing moneyline) has Lions at 57.2%, spread -2.5, total 51.5.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Lions | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Polymarket | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Kalshi | 58.0% | 42.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: New England Patriots WWLWL, Detroit Lions LWWWW.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions?
PodiumOracle's model makes New England Patriots the favourite at 54%, with Detroit Lions at 46%. The markets give New England Patriots 42% on Polymarket, 42% on Kalshi and 41% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 54% favourite still loses 46% of the time.
When and where is New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions?
15 November 2026, at FC Bayern Munich Stadium (Week 10). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.