29 Sep 2026 · Scotiabank Arena
Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs
Canadiens 3 – 2 Maple Leafs · Montreal Canadiens won. We had Toronto Maple Leafs at 44.3% and Montreal Canadiens at 55.7%.
Ratings before the game: Maple Leafs 1468, Canadiens 1532, plus 35 for playing at home.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Maple Leafs | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Polymarket | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| Kalshi | 49.0% | 51.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Montreal Canadiens no games yet, Toronto Maple Leafs no games yet.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs | 4–2 | 54% |
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Dec 2026 | Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens | 34% | 66% |
| 22 Mar 2027 | Toronto Maple Leafs at Montreal Canadiens | 34% | 66% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Montreal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs?
Montreal Canadiens won 3–2 on 29 September 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Montreal Canadiens 56%.