12 Nov 2026 · KeyBank Center
Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres
Lightning 8 – 3 Sabres · Tampa Bay Lightning won. We had Buffalo Sabres at 50.6% and Tampa Bay Lightning at 49.4%.
Ratings before the game: Sabres 1530, Lightning 1560, plus 35 for playing at home.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Sabres | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Polymarket | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Kalshi | 46.0% | 54.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Tampa Bay Lightning LWWWL, Buffalo Sabres WWLWL.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Nov 2026 | Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning | 40% | 60% |
| 3 Jan 2027 | Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning | 40% | 60% |
| 5 Apr 2027 | Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres | 50% | 50% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres?
Tampa Bay Lightning won 8–3 on 12 November 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Tampa Bay Lightning 49%.