How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 627 | 0.693 | 63% |
| Base rate | 627 | 0.705 | 56% |
| Recent form | 627 | 0.698 | 58% |
The finals are simulated with the real top-eight system: qualifying and elimination finals, semi-finals, preliminary finals and the grand final. Games already played in the finals keep their real result.
A draw after golden point is rare, so the draw band the model learns is narrow.
The ladder is ESPN's official one, with two points for each bye.
The rating does not know who is injured, suspended or rested. Origin weeks are not treated differently.