PodiumOracle NRL

Rugby league · 2026 season over

NRL forecasts

The 2026 season is over. Until the 2027 schedule is out, here is an early look: last season's schedule played 10,000 times a year on, with every rating carried over the way the model carries it between seasons. Early favourite: Panthers, 16%. The full early look.

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
4 Oct 2026Knights at Roosters18–1967%
27 Sep 2026Knights at Panthers22–1427%
25 Sep 2026Roosters at Dolphins36–2034%
20 Sep 2026Knights at Warriors12–1027%
19 Sep 2026Sharks at Roosters10–4659%
13 Sep 2026Roosters at Panthers12–1965%
12 Sep 2026Dolphins at Warriors26–1643%
12 Sep 2026Cowboys at Sharks16–2668%
11 Sep 2026Knights at Rabbitohs20–1035%
6 Sep 2026Eels at Dragons22–2436%
6 Sep 2026Wests Tigers at Panthers10–3888%
5 Sep 2026Sea Eagles at Warriors30–3174%

Chance of winning the premiership

Every team

TeamFinalsTop fourPreliminary finalGrand finalPremiership
Panthers82%54%53%30%16%
Dolphins82%53%53%30%16%
Warriors81%53%52%28%15%
Roosters78%48%49%27%14%
Knights63%32%31%15%7%
Sharks57%26%27%12%6%
Storm52%23%23%10%5%
Rabbitohs50%21%22%10%5%
Sea Eagles51%21%21%9%4%
Raiders47%20%20%8%4%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2027 premiership?

Panthers, at 16%, ahead of Dolphins (16%), Warriors (15%) and Roosters (14%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the next season, on last season's schedule with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's NRL predictions?

On 629 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 63% of the time. Its log loss was 0.693, against 0.705 for the base rate and 0.699 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.688 against the bookmakers' 0.672 over 138 games, 0.761 against Polymarket's 0.698 over 37 games and 0.684 against Kalshi's 0.679 over 159 games (lower is better).

How are the NRL predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.