Football · 2026 season
NWSL forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the NWSL Championship odds. Favourite right now: Gotham FC, 22%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2026 | Utah Royals at Washington Spirit | 35% | 0% | 65% |
| 15 Nov 2026 | Kansas City Current at Gotham FC | 44% | 0% | 56% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Portland Thorns FC at Washington Spirit | 1–4 | 59% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Seattle Reign FC at Gotham FC | 0–1 | 66% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Angel City FC at Kansas City Current | 0–1 | 53% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Utah Royals at San Diego Wave FC | 1–0 | 32% |
Chance of winning the NWSL Championship
| Team | Make playoffs | Reach final | Win championship |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gotham FC | 100% | 38% | 22% |
| Kansas City Current | 100% | 29% | 17% |
| San Diego Wave FC | 100% | 36% | 16% |
| Washington Spirit | 100% | 33% | 15% |
| Angel City FC | 100% | 22% | 13% |
| Portland Thorns FC | 100% | 17% | 6% |
| Seattle Reign FC | 100% | 11% | 5% |
| Utah Royals | 100% | 14% | 5% |
| North Carolina Courage | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Denver Summit FC | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026 NWSL Championship?
Gotham FC, at 22%, ahead of Kansas City Current (17%), San Diego Wave FC (16%) and Washington Spirit (15%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next NWSL games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Utah Royals at Washington Spirit (14 November 2026): Washington Spirit 65%; Kansas City Current at Gotham FC (15 November 2026): Gotham FC 56%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's NWSL predictions?
On 622 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 51% of the time. Its log loss was 1.003, against 1.052 for the base rate and 1.032 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.991 against the bookmakers' 0.955 over 243 games, 0.995 against Polymarket's 0.951 over 195 games and 0.997 against Kalshi's 0.961 over 228 games (lower is better).
How are the NWSL predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the NWSL Championship odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.