How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 581 | 1.012 | 50% |
| Base rate | 581 | 1.052 | 46% |
| Recent form | 581 | 1.034 | 49% |
Summer heat counts as rough weather here, as well as wind and rain.
The NWSL Shield is the 'Finish first' column.
International call-ups and injuries are not in the model.
No historical betting lines are in the source, so there is no market comparison.