How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 1533 | 0.626 | 65% |
| Base rate | 1533 | 0.684 | 57% |
| Recent form | 1533 | 0.649 | 63% |
Junior hockey turns over fast: players age out at 20 (with a few overage spots), so a team's strength swings from one season to the next. The model pulls every rating a long way back toward average over the summer for that reason.
The playoff odds follow the league's format: the top eight in each conference, the two division winners seeded first, best-of-seven series re-seeded each round, then the OHL Final.
Roster moves (trades before the deadline, import picks, players returning from NHL camps) are not in the model until they show up in results.
Goaltending is not in the rating.