Football · 2026–27 season
Primeira Liga forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: FC Porto, 63%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Nov 2026 | C.D. Nacional at Maritimo | 28% | 29% | 44% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Santa Clara at Moreirense | 30% | 29% | 42% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Rio Ave at Arouca | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Alverca at Académico de Viseu | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Estrela at Vitória de Guimaraes | 17% | 24% | 60% |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Estoril at Gil Vicente | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Sporting CP at FC Porto | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| 30 Nov 2026 | FC Famalicao at Benfica | 7% | 13% | 80% |
| 30 Nov 2026 | Braga at Casa Pia | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| 4 Dec 2026 | Maritimo at Sporting CP | 3% | 6% | 91% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Benfica at C.D. Nacional | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | FC Porto at Santa Clara | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Arouca at Braga | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| 6 Dec 2026 | Casa Pia at Rio Ave | 28% | 29% | 44% |
| 6 Dec 2026 | Gil Vicente at Estrela | 43% | 29% | 29% |
| 6 Dec 2026 | Vitória de Guimaraes at Estoril | 36% | 29% | 34% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Braga at Rio Ave | 1–0 | 58% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Benfica at Estrela | 3–2 | 82% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | FC Porto at Vitória de Guimaraes | 2–1 | 69% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Gil Vicente at Santa Clara | 2–1 | 27% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Académico de Viseu at C.D. Nacional | 0–1 | 33% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Moreirense at Sporting CP | 0–1 | 86% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Casa Pia at Alverca | 1–1 | 28% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Arouca at FC Famalicao | 0–1 | 48% |
Chance of winning the title
| Team | Win title | Top two | Top three | Relegation play-off | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 63% | 90% | >99% | 0% | 0% |
| Benfica | 27% | 73% | >99% | 0% | 0% |
| Sporting CP | 10% | 37% | 98% | 0% | 0% |
| Braga | 0% | <1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Arouca | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Santa Clara | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Gil Vicente | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Académico de Viseu | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| FC Famalicao | 0% | 0% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Moreirense | 0% | 0% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Primeira Liga title?
FC Porto, at 63%, ahead of Benfica (27%) and Sporting CP (10%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next Primeira Liga games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: C.D. Nacional at Maritimo (27 November 2026): Maritimo 44%, a draw 29%; Santa Clara at Moreirense (28 November 2026): Moreirense 42%, a draw 29%; Rio Ave at Arouca (28 November 2026): Arouca 58%, a draw 24%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Primeira Liga predictions?
On 710 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 54% of the time. Its log loss was 0.929, against 1.080 for the base rate and 0.972 for recent form, and 0.914 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.930 against the bookmakers' 0.912 over 214 games, 0.901 against Polymarket's 0.887 over 299 games and 0.907 against Kalshi's 0.893 over 275 games (lower is better).
How are the Primeira Liga predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Primeira Liga title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.