How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 93 | 0.411 | 85% |
| Base rate | 93 | 0.662 | 78% |
| Recent form | 93 | 0.573 | 72% |
Ratings use every test in the related competitions (see Sources); only Rugby World Cup games are scored in the track record.
The 2027 tournament is played in full in every simulation: the pool games with bonus points (four for a win, two for a draw, one for losing by seven or less, one for four tries), then the top two in each pool and the four best third-placed sides into the round of 16 and World Rugby's fixed bracket. Every ground is neutral except that Australia is at home.
The best third-placed sides are placed in the round of 16 by the pools each slot allows; where World Rugby's own table differs for a combination of pools, the first valid placement is used.
Injuries and selection are not in the model.