Rugby union · 2027 season
Rugby World Cup forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Webb Ellis Cup odds. Favourite right now: South Africa, 51%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2027 | Hong Kong at Australia | 88% | 1% | 11% |
| 2 Oct 2027 | Zimbabwe vs Wales | 37% | 3% | 60% |
| 2 Oct 2027 | Chile vs New Zealand | 97% | <1% | 3% |
| 2 Oct 2027 | United States of America vs France | 97% | <1% | 3% |
| 2 Oct 2027 | Tonga vs England | 98% | <1% | 2% |
| 3 Oct 2027 | Samoa vs Japan | 51% | 3% | 46% |
| 3 Oct 2027 | Italy vs South Africa | 99% | <1% | 1% |
| 3 Oct 2027 | Uruguay vs Scotland | 90% | 1% | 9% |
| 3 Oct 2027 | Romania vs Georgia | 84% | 2% | 14% |
| 4 Oct 2027 | Spain vs Fiji | 72% | 3% | 25% |
| 4 Oct 2027 | Portugal vs Ireland | 95% | 1% | 4% |
| 4 Oct 2027 | Canada vs Argentina | 98% | <1% | 2% |
| 8 Oct 2027 | Tonga vs Wales | 89% | 1% | 10% |
| 8 Oct 2027 | Zimbabwe vs England | 78% | 2% | 20% |
| 9 Oct 2027 | Samoa vs United States of America | 42% | 3% | 54% |
| 9 Oct 2027 | New Zealand at Australia | 14% | 2% | 84% |
Chance of winning the Webb Ellis Cup
| Team | Win pool | Reach last 16 | Quarter-final | Semi-final | Reach final | Win the cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 98% | 100% | 97% | 73% | 62% | 51% |
| New Zealand | 84% | >99% | 97% | 38% | 27% | 17% |
| Ireland | 63% | 98% | 77% | 66% | 38% | 13% |
| France | 92% | >99% | 63% | 52% | 14% | 8% |
| England | 73% | 99% | 86% | 51% | 23% | 5% |
| Scotland | 34% | 96% | 55% | 42% | 16% | 4% |
| Australia | 14% | 91% | 75% | 30% | 11% | 2% |
| Argentina | 68% | 99% | 64% | 16% | 5% | 1% |
| Zimbabwe | 17% | 90% | 48% | 11% | 2% | <1% |
| Wales | 10% | 80% | 29% | 5% | 1% | <1% |