Rugby union · 2027 season
Rugby World Cup forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Webb Ellis Cup odds. Favourite right now: South Africa, 34%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2027 | Hong Kong at Australia | 9% | 1% | 90% |
| 2 Oct 2027 | Zimbabwe vs Wales | 58% | 3% | 39% |
| 2 Oct 2027 | Chile vs New Zealand | 2% | <1% | 98% |
| 2 Oct 2027 | United States of America vs France | 3% | <1% | 97% |
| 2 Oct 2027 | Tonga vs England | 1% | <1% | 98% |
| 3 Oct 2027 | Samoa vs Japan | 52% | 3% | 44% |
| 3 Oct 2027 | Italy vs South Africa | 2% | <1% | 98% |
| 3 Oct 2027 | Uruguay vs Scotland | 10% | 1% | 88% |
| 3 Oct 2027 | Romania vs Georgia | 14% | 2% | 84% |
| 4 Oct 2027 | Spain vs Fiji | 23% | 3% | 74% |
| 4 Oct 2027 | Portugal vs Ireland | 4% | 1% | 96% |
| 4 Oct 2027 | Canada vs Argentina | 2% | <1% | 98% |
| 8 Oct 2027 | Tonga vs Wales | 9% | 1% | 90% |
| 8 Oct 2027 | Zimbabwe vs England | 17% | 2% | 81% |
| 9 Oct 2027 | Samoa vs United States of America | 54% | 3% | 42% |
| 9 Oct 2027 | New Zealand at Australia | 89% | 1% | 10% |
Chance of winning the Webb Ellis Cup
| Team | Win pool | Reach last 16 | Quarter-final | Semi-final | Reach final | Win the cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 98% | 100% | 96% | 57% | 45% | 34% |
| New Zealand | 89% | >99% | 98% | 51% | 38% | 27% |
| Ireland | 68% | 99% | 80% | 69% | 42% | 16% |
| France | 93% | >99% | 66% | 55% | 17% | 9% |
| England | 76% | 99% | 88% | 57% | 28% | 7% |
| Scotland | 29% | 95% | 49% | 36% | 13% | 3% |
| Australia | 10% | 91% | 76% | 29% | 10% | 1% |
| Argentina | 64% | 98% | 62% | 14% | 3% | <1% |
| Zimbabwe | 14% | 89% | 46% | 11% | 2% | <1% |
| Wales | 9% | 81% | 31% | 6% | 1% | <1% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2027 Webb Ellis Cup?
South Africa, at 34%, ahead of New Zealand (27%), Ireland (16%) and France (9%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next Rugby World Cup games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Hong Kong at Australia (1 October 2027): Australia 90%, a draw 1%; Zimbabwe vs Wales (2 October 2027): Zimbabwe 58%, a draw 3%; Chile vs New Zealand (2 October 2027): New Zealand 98%, a draw under 1%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Rugby World Cup predictions?
On 93 games from held-back seasons (2019 to 2023), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 85% of the time. Its log loss was 0.411, against 0.662 for the base rate and 0.573 for recent form.
How are the Rugby World Cup predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Webb Ellis Cup odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.