Pool F
Tonga
Rated 1224 (No. 22 of 24), 0–0 this season, 0% to win the Webb Ellis Cup.
Season outlook
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from today's ratings.
- <1%
- Win pool
- 9%
- Reach last 16
- 1%
- Quarter-final
- <1%
- Semi-final
- 0%
- Reach final
- 0%
- Win the cup
- 1.3
- Projected points
Rating
Tonga is rated 1224, No. 22 of 24. The gap between two ratings is what the model turns into a win chance: about 100 points makes a 64% favourite on a neutral ground.
Next
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2027 | Tonga vs England | 1% | <1% | 98% |
| 8 Oct 2027 | Tonga vs Wales | 9% | 1% | 90% |
Questions and answers
What is Tonga's chance of winning the 2027 Webb Ellis Cup?
0%, from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Tonga is No. 22 of 24 in PodiumOracle's power ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
Who do Tonga play next, and what are their chances?
Tonga vs England on 2 October 2027 at Brisbane Stadium. PodiumOracle's model gives Tonga 1%, a draw under 1%.