Football · 2026–27 season
Saudi Pro League forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Al Hilal, 68%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Nov 2026 | Al Nassr at Al Ahli | 47% | 24% | 28% |
| 26 Nov 2026 | Al Riyadh at Al Fateh | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| 26 Nov 2026 | Al Shabab at Abha | 61% | 21% | 19% |
| 26 Nov 2026 | Al Diriyah at Al Faisaly | 37% | 25% | 37% |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Al Khaleej at Al Kholood | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Al Fayha at Al Qadsiah | 6% | 9% | 86% |
| 27 Nov 2026 | Neom SC at Al Ittihad | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Al Nassr at Al Hazem | 81% | 11% | 8% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Al Hilal at Al Ettifaq | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Al Taawoun at Al Ahli | 9% | 13% | 78% |
| 3 Dec 2026 | Al Ettifaq at Al Shabab | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| 3 Dec 2026 | Abha at Al Taawoun | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| 3 Dec 2026 | Al Diriyah at Al Hilal | 5% | 8% | 87% |
| 4 Dec 2026 | Al Kholood at Neom SC | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| 4 Dec 2026 | Al Ittihad at Al Khaleej | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| 4 Dec 2026 | Al Faisaly at Al Ahli | 9% | 13% | 79% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct 2026 | Al Ettifaq at Al Taawoun | 1–1 | 25% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Al Faisaly at Al Fayha | 1–4 | 39% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Al Fateh at Al Hilal | 0–2 | 92% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Al Ittihad at Abha | 1–1 | 13% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Neom SC at Al Diriyah | 2–1 | 37% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Al Ahli at Al Shabab | 1–6 | 15% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Al Hazem at Al Khaleej | 2–4 | 44% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Al Qadsiah at Al Riyadh | 6–0 | 75% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Al Kholood at Al Nassr | 3–5 | 89% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Al Faisaly at Abha | 1–0 | 48% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Abha at Neom SC | 0–2 | 74% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Al Ettifaq at Al Kholood | 3–0 | 38% |
Chance of winning the title
| Team | Win title | Top three | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal | 68% | 98% | 0% |
| Al Nassr | 21% | 89% | 0% |
| Al Qadsiah | 11% | 84% | 0% |
| Al Ittihad | <1% | 14% | 0% |
| Al Ahli | <1% | 13% | 0% |
| Neom SC | 0% | 1% | <1% |
| Al Ettifaq | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| Al Shabab | 0% | <1% | 1% |
| Al Diriyah | 0% | 0% | 2% |
| Al Khaleej | 0% | 0% | 5% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Saudi Pro League title?
Al Hilal, at 68%, ahead of Al Nassr (21%) and Al Qadsiah (11%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next Saudi Pro League games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Al Nassr at Al Ahli (20 November 2026): Al Nassr 47%, a draw 24%; Al Riyadh at Al Fateh (26 November 2026): Al Fateh 40%, a draw 25%; Al Shabab at Abha (26 November 2026): Al Shabab 61%, a draw 21%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Saudi Pro League predictions?
On 716 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 56% of the time. Its log loss was 0.920, against 1.061 for the base rate and 0.956 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.875 against the bookmakers' 0.863 over 198 games, 0.897 against Polymarket's 0.879 over 307 games and 0.876 against Kalshi's 0.855 over 242 games (lower is better).
How are the Saudi Pro League predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Saudi Pro League title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.