How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 675 | 0.926 | 56% |
| Base rate | 675 | 1.061 | 44% |
| Recent form | 675 | 0.959 | 55% |
A draw is its own outcome: the model has a band around an even contest in which a draw is the likeliest single result, fit on the tuning seasons.
ESPN's record starts in 2021-22, so the model is tuned on only two seasons; its numbers will firm up as seasons are added.
The squads changed enormously in 2023 when the league signed stars from Europe; the ratings caught up through results, not transfers.
There are no bookmakers' odds in the history, so there is no market comparison.