How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 498 | 0.980 | 53% |
| Base rate | 498 | 1.064 | 45% |
| Recent form | 498 | 1.001 | 52% |
| Betting market | 498 | 0.969 | 52% |
A draw is its own outcome: the model has a band around an even contest in which a draw is the likeliest single result, fit on the tuning seasons.
The market comparison uses the bookmakers' closing odds with their margin taken out.
The five post-split games are only scheduled once the split is known, so until then the simulation plays the 33 scheduled rounds and reports the table after them; after the split it plays the real fixtures.
Team news, injuries and rotation for European games are not in the model.
Expected goals are not in the rating yet; it learns only from results.