Football · 2026–27 season
Scottish Premiership forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Celtic, 72%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Nov 2026 | Aberdeen at Kilmarnock | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Dundee United at Hibernian | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | St Johnstone at Falkirk | 17% | 24% | 60% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | St Mirren at Celtic | 5% | 10% | 85% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Heart of Midlothian at Dundee | 52% | 26% | 21% |
| 21 Nov 2026 | Rangers at Motherwell | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| 24 Nov 2026 | Dundee at Hibernian | 20% | 26% | 55% |
| 24 Nov 2026 | Aberdeen at Rangers | 7% | 13% | 79% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Kilmarnock at St Mirren | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Falkirk at Rangers | 11% | 19% | 70% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | St Johnstone at Dundee United | 20% | 26% | 55% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Dundee at Aberdeen | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Hibernian at Motherwell | 32% | 29% | 38% |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Celtic at Heart of Midlothian | 48% | 28% | 25% |
| 2 Dec 2026 | St Mirren at St Johnstone | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| 2 Dec 2026 | Dundee United at Rangers | 10% | 17% | 74% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Kilmarnock at Celtic | 0–1 | 84% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Falkirk at Heart of Midlothian | 5–2 | 14% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Rangers at St Mirren | 2–0 | 70% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Hibernian at Aberdeen | 4–0 | 40% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Dundee at St Johnstone | 1–2 | 32% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Motherwell at Dundee United | 1–1 | 29% |
Chance of winning the title
| Team | Win title | Top two | Top six at the split | Relegation play-off | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 72% | 99% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Rangers | 27% | 94% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Heart of Midlothian | <1% | 6% | 98% | <1% | 0% |
| Falkirk | <1% | 1% | 89% | <1% | <1% |
| Dundee United | 0% | <1% | 50% | 4% | 2% |
| Hibernian | 0% | <1% | 50% | 4% | 2% |
| Dundee | 0% | <1% | 42% | 5% | 2% |
| Motherwell | 0% | <1% | 36% | 7% | 3% |
| St Johnstone | 0% | 0% | 13% | 16% | 10% |
| St Mirren | 0% | 0% | 10% | 21% | 16% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Scottish Premiership title?
Celtic, at 72%, ahead of Rangers (27%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next Scottish Premiership games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Aberdeen at Kilmarnock (21 November 2026): Kilmarnock 41%, a draw 29%; Dundee United at Hibernian (21 November 2026): Hibernian 50%, a draw 27%; St Johnstone at Falkirk (21 November 2026): Falkirk 60%, a draw 24%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Scottish Premiership predictions?
On 531 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 52% of the time. Its log loss was 0.983, against 1.064 for the base rate and 1.001 for recent form, and 0.970 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.984 against the bookmakers' 0.971 over 172 games, 0.964 against Polymarket's 0.953 over 228 games and 0.976 against Kalshi's 0.965 over 223 games (lower is better).
How are the Scottish Premiership predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Scottish Premiership title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.