14 Feb 2026 · Aviva Stadium
Italy at Ireland
Italy 13 – 20 Ireland · Ireland won. We had Ireland at 88.4%, a draw at 1.3% and Italy at 10.2%.
Ratings before the game: Ireland 1943, Italy 1693, plus 115 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 5°C, wind 19 km/h (gusts 33).
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Ireland | Draw | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 88.4% | 1.3% | 10.2% |
| Bookmakers (1 book) | 89.1% | 2.0% | 8.9% |
| Polymarket | 88.2% | 1.5% | 10.3% |
| Kalshi | 86.0% | 2.9% | 11.1% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Italy W, Ireland L.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Italy at Ireland?
Ireland won 20–13 on 14 February 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Ireland 88%.