15 Feb 2026 · Principality Stadium
France at Wales
France 54 – 12 Wales · France won. We had Wales at 4.6%, a draw at 0.7% and France at 94.8%.
Ratings before the game: Wales 1407, France 2037, plus 115 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 8°C, wind 29 km/h (gusts 52).
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Wales | Draw | France |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 4.6% | 0.7% | 94.8% |
| Bookmakers (1 book) | 4.7% | 1.8% | 93.4% |
| Polymarket | 2.2% | 0.5% | 97.3% |
| Kalshi | 2.9% | 1.9% | 95.2% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: France W, Wales L.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won France at Wales?
France won 54–12 on 15 February 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave France 95%.