22 Feb 2026 · Stade Pierre Mauroy
Italy at France
Italy 8 – 33 France · France won. We had France at 93.4%, a draw at 0.8% and Italy at 5.8%.
Ratings before the game: France 2042, Italy 1686, plus 115 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 11°C, wind 25 km/h (gusts 48), rain 1.8 mm/h.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | France | Draw | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 93.4% | 0.8% | 5.8% |
| Bookmakers (1 book) | 93.1% | 1.7% | 5.2% |
| Polymarket | 95.9% | <1% | 3.6% |
| Kalshi | 93.7% | 1.9% | 4.4% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Italy WL, France WW.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Italy at France?
France won 33–8 on 22 February 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave France 93%.