6 Mar 2026 · Aviva Stadium
Wales at Ireland
Wales 17 – 27 Ireland · Ireland won. We had Ireland at 98.6%, a draw at <1% and Wales at 1.2%.
Ratings before the game: Ireland 2033, Wales 1394, plus 115 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 7°C, wind 13 km/h (gusts 27).
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Ireland | Draw | Wales |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 98.6% | <1% | 1.2% |
| Polymarket | 94.5% | 0.5% | 5.0% |
| Kalshi | 94.6% | 1.0% | 4.4% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Wales LLL, Ireland LWW.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Wales at Ireland?
Ireland won 27–17 on 6 March 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Ireland 99%.