14 Mar 2026 · Principality Stadium
Italy at Wales
Italy 17 – 31 Wales · Wales won. We had Wales at 21.3%, a draw at 2.4% and Italy at 76.3%.
Ratings before the game: Wales 1393, Italy 1723, plus 115 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 8°C, wind 11 km/h (gusts 23), rain 0.1 mm/h.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Wales | Draw | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 21.3% | 2.4% | 76.3% |
| Polymarket | 43.0% | 2.1% | 54.9% |
| Kalshi | 37.2% | 4.8% | 58.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Italy WLLW, Wales LLLL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Italy at Wales?
Wales won 31–17 on 14 March 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Wales 21%.