Rugby union · 2026–27 season
Top 14 forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Bouclier de Brennus odds. Favourite right now: Stade Toulousain, 33%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov 2026 | Montpellier Hérault at Bordeaux Bègles | 26% | 6% | 67% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Castres Olympique at Bayonne | 28% | 7% | 65% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Perpignan at La Rochelle | 16% | 5% | 80% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Vannes at Stade Français Paris | 18% | 5% | 77% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Pau at Racing 92 | 32% | 7% | 61% |
| 28 Nov 2026 | Stade Toulousain at Lyon | 48% | 8% | 44% |
| 29 Nov 2026 | Toulon at Clermont Auvergne | 33% | 7% | 60% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Racing 92 at Stade Toulousain | 15% | 5% | 80% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Clermont Auvergne at Perpignan | 37% | 7% | 56% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Bayonne at Vannes | 32% | 7% | 61% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Lyon at Castres Olympique | 27% | 7% | 66% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | La Rochelle at Montpellier Hérault | 21% | 6% | 74% |
| 5 Dec 2026 | Stade Français Paris at Pau | 24% | 6% | 70% |
| 6 Dec 2026 | Bordeaux Bègles at Toulon | 35% | 7% | 58% |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Perpignan at Bayonne | 21% | 6% | 73% |
| 19 Dec 2026 | Pau at Bordeaux Bègles | 22% | 6% | 72% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Bayonne at La Rochelle | 18–22 | 74% |
| 8 Nov 2026 | Bordeaux Bègles at Vannes | 14–23 | 40% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Racing 92 at Castres Olympique | 30–28 | 30% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Lyon at Montpellier Hérault | 19–21 | 79% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Perpignan at Pau | 26–63 | 81% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Stade Français Paris at Toulon | 23–43 | 67% |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Clermont Auvergne at Stade Toulousain | 18–28 | 82% |
Chance of winning the Bouclier de Brennus
| Team | Make play-offs | Straight to semi-finals | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | >99% | 83% | 58% | 33% |
| Bordeaux Bègles | 92% | 26% | 37% | 19% |
| Montpellier Hérault | 94% | 25% | 35% | 17% |
| Pau | 99% | 57% | 38% | 17% |
| Toulon | 62% | 4% | 13% | 6% |
| La Rochelle | 55% | 1% | 9% | 4% |
| Lyon | 56% | 3% | 7% | 3% |
| Stade Français Paris | 14% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| Bayonne | 20% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| Racing 92 | 3% | 0% | <1% | <1% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Bouclier de Brennus?
Stade Toulousain, at 33%, ahead of Bordeaux Bègles (19%), Montpellier Hérault (17%) and Pau (17%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next Top 14 games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Montpellier Hérault at Bordeaux Bègles (28 November 2026): Bordeaux Bègles 67%, a draw 6%; Castres Olympique at Bayonne (28 November 2026): Bayonne 65%, a draw 7%; Perpignan at La Rochelle (28 November 2026): La Rochelle 80%, a draw 5%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Top 14 predictions?
On 437 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 76% of the time. Its log loss was 0.630, against 0.653 for the base rate and 0.656 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.557 against the bookmakers' 0.514 over 31 games, 0.644 against Polymarket's 0.688 over 120 games and 0.585 against Kalshi's 0.662 over 46 games (lower is better).
How are the Top 14 predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Bouclier de Brennus odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.