How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 395 | 0.638 | 76% |
| Base rate | 395 | 0.661 | 73% |
| Recent form | 395 | 0.662 | 75% |
Ratings use every game in the related competitions (see Sources); only Top 14 games are scored in the track record.
The simulated table adds bonus points the union way: four for a win, two for a draw, one for losing by seven or less, one for four tries (at each side's usual rate).
International call-ups during the Six Nations and test windows weaken clubs unevenly; the model doesn't know who is away.