4 Nov 2026 · Red Bull Arena
Manchester City at RB Leipzig
Man City 3 – 2 RB Leipzig · Manchester City won. We had RB Leipzig at 23.6%, a draw at 20.1% and Manchester City at 56.2%.
Ratings before the game: RB Leipzig 1865, Man City 2038, plus 50 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 5°C, wind 13 km/h (gusts 26).
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | RB Leipzig | Draw | Man City |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 23.6% | 20.1% | 56.2% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 19.1% | 20.0% | 60.9% |
| Polymarket | 18.4% | 19.4% | 62.2% |
| Kalshi | 18.4% | 19.4% | 62.1% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Manchester City WLW, RB Leipzig LWL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Manchester City at RB Leipzig?
Manchester City won 3–2 on 4 November 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Manchester City 56%.