PodiumOracle Champions League

Football · 2026–27 season

Champions League forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Champions League odds. Favourite right now: Bayern Munich, 18%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayDrawHome
24 Nov 2026Aston Villa at Galatasaray47%22%31%
24 Nov 2026LASK Linz at Bodo/Glimt14%15%71%
24 Nov 2026FC Porto at Feyenoord Rotterdam57%20%23%
24 Nov 2026Borussia Dortmund at Arsenal15%15%70%
24 Nov 2026AEK Athens at Como11%13%77%
24 Nov 2026Real Betis at Slovan Bratislava85%9%7%
24 Nov 2026PSV Eindhoven at Real Madrid9%11%80%
24 Nov 2026Lens at RB Leipzig20%18%62%
24 Nov 2026Napoli at Manchester City14%15%72%
25 Nov 2026Villarreal at Slavia Prague60%19%21%
25 Nov 2026Barcelona at Sabah FK94%4%3%
25 Nov 2026Viking FK at Atlético Madrid23%20%56%
25 Nov 2026Liverpool at Club Brugge38%23%40%
25 Nov 2026Manchester United at Sporting CP27%21%52%
25 Nov 2026AS Roma at Paris Saint-Germain15%15%70%
25 Nov 2026Fenerbahce at Shakhtar Donetsk39%23%38%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
4 Nov 2026Napoli at FC Porto1–451%
4 Nov 2026Sabah FK at Viking FK1–483%
4 Nov 2026Club Brugge at PSV Eindhoven2–144%
4 Nov 2026Real Betis at Borussia Dortmund1–255%
4 Nov 2026Como at Lens9–155%
4 Nov 2026Manchester City at RB Leipzig3–256%
4 Nov 2026Arsenal at Slavia Prague2–192%
4 Nov 2026Liverpool at Fenerbahce2–316%
4 Nov 2026Real Madrid at AEK Athens3–275%

Chance of winning the Champions League

Every team

TeamTop eightReach knockoutsRound of 16Quarter-finalsSemi-finalsFinalWin
Bayern Munich87%>99%98%74%49%30%18%
Arsenal91%100%98%75%49%30%18%
Paris Saint-Germain97%100%99%74%50%30%17%
Barcelona85%100%97%69%43%24%13%
Real Madrid98%100%99%69%42%22%11%
Internazionale28%98%76%40%19%9%4%
Manchester City58%>99%87%47%21%9%4%
Como41%>99%80%41%17%7%3%
Borussia Dortmund27%99%73%34%14%6%3%
Aston Villa48%>99%81%39%15%5%2%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Champions League?

Bayern Munich, at 18%, ahead of Arsenal (18%), Paris Saint-Germain (17%) and Barcelona (13%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next Champions League games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Aston Villa at Galatasaray (24 November 2026): Aston Villa 47%, a draw 22%; LASK Linz at Bodo/Glimt (24 November 2026): Bodo/Glimt 71%, a draw 15%; FC Porto at Feyenoord Rotterdam (24 November 2026): FC Porto 57%, a draw 20%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's Champions League predictions?

On 450 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 61% of the time. Its log loss was 0.857, against 0.977 for the base rate and 0.928 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.826 against the bookmakers' 0.827 over 137 games, 0.878 against Polymarket's 0.862 over 237 games and 0.870 against Kalshi's 0.858 over 253 games (lower is better).

How are the Champions League predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Champions League odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.