How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 396 | 0.856 | 61% |
| Base rate | 396 | 0.980 | 53% |
| Recent form | 396 | 0.929 | 55% |
Clubs are rated on their domestic league games as well as all three UEFA competitions, so a side that dominates the Eredivisie and one that finishes fourth in England sit on one scale, linked by their European meetings. Only Champions League matches are scored in the track record.
The knockouts are two-legged; the simulation plays each tie as a single game on neutral ground, which is close for well-matched sides and a little generous to underdogs.
Clubs from leagues football-data.co.uk doesn't carry (Czechia, Croatia, Serbia, Ukraine, Israel, Cyprus and others) are rated only on their European matches.
Countries are linked only through the UEFA competitions, and ESPN's feeds leave out the qualifying rounds.