15 Nov 2026 · Villa Park
Birmingham City at Aston Villa
We have Aston Villa at 55.8%, a draw at 20.2% and Birmingham City at 24.0%.
Ratings going in: Aston Villa 1462, Birmingham 1356, plus 15 for playing at home.
Weather forecast: 6°C, wind 3 km/h (gusts 5).
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Aston Villa | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 55.8% | 20.2% | 24.0% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 42.3% | 24.8% | 32.9% |
| Polymarket | 43.5% | 24.5% | 32.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Birmingham City LDWLL, Aston Villa DWWDL.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2027 | Aston Villa at Birmingham City | 52% | 21% | 27% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Birmingham City at Aston Villa?
PodiumOracle's model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 56%, a draw 20%, with Birmingham City at 24%. The markets give Aston Villa 42% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 56% favourite still loses 44% of the time.
When and where is Birmingham City at Aston Villa?
15 November 2026, at Villa Park. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.